China or into the world's largest photovoltaic demand market

On January 29, Shi Lishan, deputy director of the Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, revealed that China's photovoltaic "12th Five-Year Plan" adjustment of installed capacity has been set, and will be adjusted from 21GW to 35GW, which may make many PV companies already in desperate need. Long relief. The large-scale launch of the photovoltaic power plant is bound to ease the overcapacity in the upstream, and it is also a direct solution to the current PV predicament.

China's photovoltaic companies really need such a good news...

In mid-October 2012, the United States issued a ruling on China's photovoltaic “double reverse” and ruled that it imposed high anti-dumping and countervailing duties on photovoltaic products from China. At the same time, as the largest and most important export market for photovoltaic cells in China, the EU has also begun to follow the example of the United States and conducted a “double counter” investigation on China's photovoltaic products. As Europe and the United States have successively investigated “double reverse”, the external conditions of China’s photovoltaic industry are deteriorating. It can be expected that 80% of China’s PV industry’s exports will return to China. This will inevitably depend on the Chinese government's efforts to rescue them. The cultivation of China's photovoltaic market is not a one-time event and will take a long time.

China's PV companies obviously have no time to wait. It can be said that there is not much time left for the Chinese government by Chinese PV companies that are in danger of getting rid of the crisis. If the Chinese government can start the photovoltaic distributed generation market within 3-6 months, it may be able to save a large amount of domestic PV. Enterprises, some experts believe that distributed generation may be China's photovoltaic industry's "life-saving straw."

How miserable the photovoltaic industry is, can be seen from a set of data. From the first quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012, the price drop of each product in the global photovoltaic industry chain is as high as 10%-15% in each quarter. Recently, due to the decrease in installed capacity of foreign PV power plants and the lower-than-expected impact of domestic demand growth, prices are still falling. Polysilicon prices have fallen below US$18/kg. In 2008, the price of polysilicon climbed up to 300 US dollars/kg.

In order to withstand the harsh winter of the industry, PV companies in trouble can only raise their swords for layoffs and pay cuts. There is no way to do this. Although they are forced to do so, they can only do so. Among them, Suntech Electric actively reduced its production capacity, and Trina Solar lowered its shipping expectations in order to save costs. LDK LDK sold its properties to repatriate funds.

In spite of this, it is still unable to withstand the difficulties brought about by the market recession. These measures still cannot solve the PV industry's predicament, and even greater bad news will soon formally hit it. According to relevant sources of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, the final final results were not only valid for the 75 PV companies announced by the US Department of Commerce, but also for all Chinese PV companies. Judging from the final result, the applicable tax rate for domestic Trina Solar is 23.75%, and the applicable tax rate for Suntech Power is 35.97%. The average tax rate for some of China's key independent tax rates, including Yingli and Artes, applies to 30.66% of the average tax rate. Other companies The applicable tax rate exceeds 250%. The double-consolidation tax rate is basically more than 30%. After the official implementation, the domestic PV battery price advantage will no longer exist, and domestic enterprises will be directly affected by exports to the United States.

According to the Chinese saying, the misfortune is not only unparalleled, but in September 2012, the European Photovoltaic Industry Union issued an announcement and filed a “countervailing” lawsuit against the Chinese PV companies against the European Commission. The European Union announced that it has initiated an "anti-dumping" complaint investigation on China's photovoltaic products. It is hoped that anti-dumping will lead to a 120% increase in the price of solar PV modules and wafers in China, and an 80% increase in the price of solar cells, making it profitable for the operation of its own factories.

As China's largest and most important export market for photovoltaic cells, if the European Union decides to impose a high “double reverse” tax rate, this has become the last straw in China's photovoltaic industry. This can be seen from the demand for photovoltaic industry in Europe. In 2011, the global installed capacity of photovoltaics reached 29.7 GW, of which the installed capacity in Europe accounted for about 74%, which is the largest photovoltaic demand market; China's photovoltaic cells exported to the EU last year US$20.4 billion, which accounted for about 73% of the total exports of this product for the same period. The EU’s anti-dumping influence will be quite significant. Many of our companies are faced with the danger of not only losing money but also facing bankruptcy.

Following the United States and the European Union, India has also begun to follow up on its steps and plans to launch a "double counter" investigation against Chinese PV companies.

China's PV companies have been unable to cope with the ensuing bad news. The Chinese government began to rescue each other. The executive meeting of the State Council held at the end of 2012 pointed out that the photovoltaic industry is a strategic emerging industry. It is of great significance to adjust the energy structure, promote the reform of energy production and consumption methods, and promote the construction of ecological civilization. The current difficulties faced by China's photovoltaic industry are both a serious challenge to the development of the industry and an opportunity to promote industrial adjustment and upgrading. In particular, the cost of photovoltaic power generation has dropped significantly, providing favorable conditions for expanding the domestic market.

In 2011, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power in China was 3 million kilowatts. In 2012, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation increased to 7 million kilowatts. The 2013 Energy Work Conference proposed that in 2013, we must vigorously develop new energy and renewable energy, and newly installed 10 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power generation capacity. On January 29, Shi Lishan, deputy director of the Renewable Energy Division of the National Energy Administration, revealed that China's photovoltaic "12th Five-Year Plan" adjustment of installed capacity has been completed and will be adjusted from 21GW to 35GW.

This is already the fourth adjustment of China's photovoltaic industry development target. At first, China’s photovoltaic power generation capacity development target was 5GW, and by 2011 it was adjusted to 10GW. In 2012, the State Council issued the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Energy Development”. The Circular and the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development have adjusted the target to 21 GW.

This adjustment reflects the main tone of China's expansion of domestic demand for photovoltaics. From the perspective of the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation in China, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the country from 2011 to 2012 is about 8 GW. This year, together with the estimated 10 GW installed capacity this year, it is expected to reach 18 GW by the end of this year, and it has completed the previous target. 85%. Obviously, the earlier planning has not matched the current status of the industry and adjustments are necessary.

On the other hand, the overall tone of the national policy is to expand domestic demand while at the same time curbing excess capacity. The large-scale launch of the photovoltaic power plant is bound to ease the overcapacity in the upstream, and it is also a direct solution to the current PV predicament.

It can be expected that with this growth rate, the Chinese PV market will continue to develop rapidly in the next five years. The latest report released by IHS, an energy information consulting company, points out that in the next few years, Asia, especially China, will replace Europe as the world’s largest source of solar installation projects. Photovoltaic demand is undergoing major regional changes, and the industry is becoming truly global. In 2013, Germany fell to third place, behind China and the United States.

The Goldman Sachs report believes that in 2013 China will replace Germany as the world’s largest market economy. In 2013, 2014 and 2015, the total PV market in China will be 64 billion, 72 billion and 80 billion respectively. The total market volume in three years will be as high as More than 200 billion. The annual installed capacity in Germany is stable at around 7GW. If China can achieve the projected 10GW of PV installed capacity this year, it will undoubtedly replace Germany as the world's largest market for photovoltaic demand.