Is Zhang Zhongmou a pioneer or a follower?

TSMC chairman Zhang Zhongmou said at the end of 2010 that all of the company’s manufacturing processes were queued up. In the first half of 2011, some processes still had people lining up, but by the third quarter of 2011, they said that all processes had no queues. However, after stocks have been digested for a season, orders can be re-entered in the fourth quarter; then, on October 12, they say that Chunyan, which is not seeing a boom in 2012, will be returned.

Although Zhang Zhongmou’s comments on the economy still have full weight in the industry, the accuracy is still questionable; the reason is simple. When Zhang Zhongmou and TSMC are in a low-grade economy, they can see the spring plumbing duck prophet phenomenon. However, in the high season, faced with the client's last hot boiled frog who has only drawn TSMC orders, Zhang Zhongzhi will fall into the trap of followers of prosperity, and even the last sheep blindly from the sheep.

Why is this happening? In fact, TSMC is a global foundry leading factory and Zhang Zhongmou constantly emphasizes its partnership with customers. With the best process, delivery, yield, and service quality of TSMC, foreign IDM makers and domestic and foreign IC designers have a steady growth year-on-year in demand for wafer foundry capacity, and rely on TSMC's advanced manufacturing process. With increasing daily usage, even a number of domestic and foreign chip suppliers consider TSMC as the only source of wafer foundry, and they can see the trust of TSMC.

TSMC has a vast and loyal customer base, and in the most upstream position of the entire industrial chain, when the economy turns from poor to good, Zhang Zhongmou has used Chunjiang more than once! Plumbing Duck Prophet and seeing the light at the end of the tunnel to describe the customer's order backflow. At this time, like at the end of 2009, Zhang Zhongmou saw a very accurate future.

However, if the boom has changed from a high to a low angle, because customers want to maintain a good relationship with TSMC, pumping orders will always be the last one to draw up Taiwanese products. With dead loyalties, the industry is no longer good, but it must be held by people. Therefore, Zhang Zhongmou and TSMC are When the business booms from a high-grade reversal, it often fails to hear the truth. Therefore, Zhang Zhongmou and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. can lower the growth rate of the global semiconductor and foundry industry's output value by two times in one year, and the company’s production capacity. The utilization forecast also tends to change significantly within the first quarter.

In short, if the blind sheep are used to describe the entire industry chain, they cannot see the visibility of orders. They can only advance one by one with the needs of the terminal. In the L journey, TSMC naturally could not be outside the flock, and TSMC is often the entire front of the flock walking in the sheep, the last sheep.

Observing the two key points of Zhang’s talk on the 12th, one can know that there was a crisis in 2012, but there were also turning points. The crisis is the failure to see the economic boom of 2012, and the turning point is that the fundamentals of the company are very important. After 10 years of development, Taiwan’s science and technology industry has experienced strong crisis, such as economic recession, economic depression, and huge natural disasters. However, each time, Taiwanese companies can always grasp the key to cost reduction and crisis. And let Hon Hai, Quanta, Compal, Delta Electronics, Acer, HTC, MediaTek, and even TSMC themselves turn around in the industry supply chain and achieve a middle and long-term unshakable position.

Therefore, if you listen to Zhang Zhongmou’s speech, you can't just listen to half of it. You don’t need to be the last audience of that fearful industrial boom 2012 edition, and you have to listen to the new half, that is, the fundamentals of the enterprise are extremely important, so that the next TSMC, or TSMC's own upgraded version, will also qualify in 2012.

Telophone Enclosure

Fenghua Jade Motor Co., Ltd. , http://www.telephone-enclosure.com

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