The rapid expansion of wind power installed capacity, the accident continues to trigger the transformation of converter demand. According to the statistics of the China Wind Energy Association, as of 2010, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China has reached 44.73 GW, which is equivalent to 297 GW of technological development. The development rate has reached 15.1%. According to the plan, the scale of wind power in China will exceed 90 GW by 2015 and reach 150 GW by 2020. Although China's wind power industry has maintained rapid growth for nearly 10 years, due to the lack of low-voltage ride-through capability, the large-scale fan off-grid accident has caused a huge impact on the power grid. At present, most of the domestic wind turbines do not have low-voltage ride-through modules installed, and some of the previously installed turbines cannot meet the latest requirements of the Institute of Electrical Engineering. The continuous off-grid accident will trigger the need for converter retrofit.
The reform of the industry has given rise to a vast market of wind power converters. Since August of this year, the Electricity Regulatory Commission has organized wind power safety inspections. Among them, the most important part of wind power equipment is the inspection of the low-voltage ride-through capability of the unit and its transformation. Since then, the Ministry of Energy issued 18 important standards such as the “Technical Specifications for Large Wind Farm Grid Connection Designâ€, including the low voltage ride-through capability of wind turbines. According to our calculations, the transformation of converters will bring about 3 billion yuan in new market space. Moreover, as the level of gross profit margin for retrofitting is higher than that of converters, the benefit of related manufacturers will be even greater. We expect that in the future, we will further carry out a centralized rectification of the low-voltage ride-through problem by rectifying the unit that does not have low-voltage ride-through capability, thus effectively preventing the re-occurrence of blown-out network accidents.
Domestic manufacturers ready to go
With strong technical accumulation, there are still foreign-owned manufacturers in the market. At present, most of the market share of domestic wind power converters is still occupied by foreign companies. Domestic-funded enterprises account for only 5%, mainly ABB, Siemens, converteam, Emerson, etc. This has become a bottleneck restricting the industrialization of wind power in China. Companies such as ABB and Siemens are not specialized wind power manufacturers, but they are truly giants in the electrical industry. Before entering the wind power industry, they already have a large number of converter patents and have a strong technical reserve.
Domestic manufacturers started late, but have already broken through. Domestic research converters started relatively late. In recent years, the country has introduced many policies and initiatives to support the development of national brands. Since 2006, domestic companies have applied for more and more patents. Beijing Connaught Wai Yip Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Hefei Sunshine Power Co., Ltd., Beijing Qingneng Huafu Wind Power Technology Co., Ltd., Tianjin Ruineng Electric, Longyuan Electric, Jiuzhou Electric, Kelu Xinneng and Wangwang Electric, etc. With megawatt wind turbine converter R & D, production and supply capabilities.
The barriers of wind power converters are mainly concentrated on three aspects: high system reliability requirements, corresponding to the design of wind power operation features, and a full set of safety and stability testing techniques. Because the industry has high barriers to entry, whether converter manufacturers want to expand product structure horizontally or wind power manufacturers want vertical industry chain expansion, they all need to pay higher costs and longer time. This will make the wind power converter industry not face the increased competition brought by new entrants in the short term.
In terms of system reliability requirements, only with anti-jamming capability can the system be controlled to achieve reliability requirements. To deal with interference, not only the system hardware must be anti-interference, but also the software must have anti-jamming capability. For the hardware part of the anti-jamming requirements are mainly concentrated in the structural design, power supply design, sampling channels, grounding design, decoupling, PCB design and other aspects. The anti-interference requirements for the software part mainly include trap technology, time redundancy technology, fault tolerance technology, and digital filtering technology.
Corresponding to the design aspect of wind power operation characteristics, one of the important difficulties in the manufacture of wind power converters is to design the control system according to the features of wind power operation. Therefore, manufacturing companies need to have a deeper understanding of the characteristics of wind power, including the adaptability to wind power operating environment, low voltage ride through, and high voltage ride through.
As for the complete set of safety and stability testing technologies, the quality control is very strict due to the fact that the fan operation is generally based on the criteria of not going offline for 20 years. Not only the downstream machine manufacturers need to conduct type tests on the converters to control the quality, but also generally need to have dozens of steps of quality control systems within the converter manufacturers, such as over-current protection, over-temperature protection, and overload testing.
It is optimistic about the dual-feedback technology that is bound to the manufacturers of converter manufacturers. The double-fed machine occupies 77% of the inventory, and its upstream converter manufacturers have a larger market space. From the perspective of inventory, the double-fed machine accounted for 77%, while the direct-drive machine accounted for only 23%. Therefore, we believe that there is more market space for DFIG converter manufacturers in upstream converters. Due to the mainstream of domestic direct drive manufacturers only gold wind technology and Hunan Electric shares, its optionality is also small. There are more than 60 double-fed machine manufacturers, and their selectivity to downstream manufacturers is even broader.
At present, domestic companies that have achieved technological breakthroughs and have the ability to provide centralized supply to large-scale integrated manufacturers can be classified into three categories: subsidiaries of complete manufacturers, such as Goldwind Technologies and Xiangdian Electric, all of which are established in its subsidiaries. Converter subsidiary company; power electronics company realizes supply for large-scale machine manufacturers after technological breakthroughs, such as Ke Lu Xin Neng, Rongxin shares, Jiuzhou Electric; early focus on manufacturers of renewable energy power generation products, such as Qingnenghua Fu, Hefei sunshine, hope of electrical and so on.
We believe that converter manufacturers that have long-term supply through close cooperation with complete machine manufacturers will have greater room for growth, and will also go faster in the process of import substitution, such as Ke Lu Xineng, and hopes for electric and so on.
New installed capacity boosts incremental market
Judging from the cumulative installed capacity, Huarui, Goldwind, and Dongqi together accounted for 57% of the cumulative installed capacity, of which double-fed generators Huarui and Dongqi accounted for 36%, direct-drive units accounted for 21% of the wind. Therefore, we believe that the converter companies that bind the three major manufacturers will play an integral role in the entire process of the transformation.
From the stock market, the installed capacity of the direct drive is 10.17 GW, and the double feed is 34.57 GW. Assuming 1.5MW per unit, there are 6,779 direct-drive units and 23044 double-fed units. The price of low-voltage ridethrough retrofit is generally quite different. For example, Jinfeng Science and Technology, due to the simple structure of the direct-drive unit, transforms about 10 million yuan; the Dongfang Steam Turbine has the lowest transformation cost, less than 10 million; and Sinovel wind turbines are more compact due to the unit design. The transformation of the converter chassis needs to be completely transformed at a price of more than 200,000 yuan. In the process of market size measurement, we assume that the average price is 100,000 yuan, and the total market scale of the stock market reform is about 3 billion yuan, of which double feed is 2.3 billion yuan and direct drive is about 700 million yuan.
From the perspective of new installed capacity, Huarui, Goldwind, and Dongqi together accounted for 56% of the cumulative installed capacity, of which the double-feeder units Huarui and Dongqi accounted for 36%, and the direct-drive unit's Goldwind accounted for 20%. Therefore, the converter companies that bind the three major manufacturers will have a stable industry position and a steady source of orders in the supporting market.
From the perspective of the newly added market, the average annual new installed capacity during the 12th Five-Year Plan is 9053MW, and during the 13th Five-Year Plan period it is 12,000MW. We assume that direct drive accounts for 23% of the total, double-feeding accounts for 77%, and 1.5MW/Taiwan blowers measure, then the average annual demand of direct-drive wind turbines during the "12th Five-Year Plan" is 1388, and during the "Thirteenth Five-Year" period, it is 1840. station. The average annual demand for double-fed fans during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period is 4647 units, and 6160 units during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. According to the direct-drive converter price of 700,000 yuan and the double-feed converter price of 400,000 yuan, the market size of the converter during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period will be 2.83 billion yuan, of which 970 million yuan will be directly driven and 1.86 billion will be double-fed. yuan. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, it was 3.75 billion yuan, of which direct investment was 1.29 billion yuan and double-batch was 2.46 billion yuan.
We believe that the demand for transforming the market will be concentrated in 2012-2013. Therefore, we will allocate the scale of the reform to 2012-2013, and the average market size for 2012-2013 will reach 4.32 billion yuan, benefiting from the policy of reform, and the change of wind power. The streamer market may focus on outbreaks.
Although China has become a major wind power country regardless of cumulative installed capacity or total output of wind turbines, due to the disorder of development, the next phase will focus on improving the grid connection ratio and improving wind power quality and stability. Wind power converters, as a key component of electrical energy conversion, have localized rates of less than 10%, and most of them still rely on foreign companies. Many net-off accidents, inspections by the Electricity Regulatory Commission, and future transformations will all become breakthrough opportunities for local wind power converter manufacturers. We believe that the wind power converter manufacturers that doubly-fed generators will be bound to downstream customers will enjoy a broad market prospect. It is expected that related equipment vendors, such as Kelu Electronics, Sunlight Power Supply, and Haide Control will benefit. Among them, Kelu Electronics has long-term strategic cooperation agreements with Dongfeng because of its leading technology and stable and reliable products. This is just a beginning for Kelu. With the continuous demonstration of the company's demonstration effects in the field of wind turbine transformation and direct drive wind power conversion. With the introduction of device products, the company is expected to gain more room for development in this area.
The reform of the industry has given rise to a vast market of wind power converters. Since August of this year, the Electricity Regulatory Commission has organized wind power safety inspections. Among them, the most important part of wind power equipment is the inspection of the low-voltage ride-through capability of the unit and its transformation. Since then, the Ministry of Energy issued 18 important standards such as the “Technical Specifications for Large Wind Farm Grid Connection Designâ€, including the low voltage ride-through capability of wind turbines. According to our calculations, the transformation of converters will bring about 3 billion yuan in new market space. Moreover, as the level of gross profit margin for retrofitting is higher than that of converters, the benefit of related manufacturers will be even greater. We expect that in the future, we will further carry out a centralized rectification of the low-voltage ride-through problem by rectifying the unit that does not have low-voltage ride-through capability, thus effectively preventing the re-occurrence of blown-out network accidents.
Domestic manufacturers ready to go
With strong technical accumulation, there are still foreign-owned manufacturers in the market. At present, most of the market share of domestic wind power converters is still occupied by foreign companies. Domestic-funded enterprises account for only 5%, mainly ABB, Siemens, converteam, Emerson, etc. This has become a bottleneck restricting the industrialization of wind power in China. Companies such as ABB and Siemens are not specialized wind power manufacturers, but they are truly giants in the electrical industry. Before entering the wind power industry, they already have a large number of converter patents and have a strong technical reserve.
Domestic manufacturers started late, but have already broken through. Domestic research converters started relatively late. In recent years, the country has introduced many policies and initiatives to support the development of national brands. Since 2006, domestic companies have applied for more and more patents. Beijing Connaught Wai Yip Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Hefei Sunshine Power Co., Ltd., Beijing Qingneng Huafu Wind Power Technology Co., Ltd., Tianjin Ruineng Electric, Longyuan Electric, Jiuzhou Electric, Kelu Xinneng and Wangwang Electric, etc. With megawatt wind turbine converter R & D, production and supply capabilities.
The barriers of wind power converters are mainly concentrated on three aspects: high system reliability requirements, corresponding to the design of wind power operation features, and a full set of safety and stability testing techniques. Because the industry has high barriers to entry, whether converter manufacturers want to expand product structure horizontally or wind power manufacturers want vertical industry chain expansion, they all need to pay higher costs and longer time. This will make the wind power converter industry not face the increased competition brought by new entrants in the short term.
In terms of system reliability requirements, only with anti-jamming capability can the system be controlled to achieve reliability requirements. To deal with interference, not only the system hardware must be anti-interference, but also the software must have anti-jamming capability. For the hardware part of the anti-jamming requirements are mainly concentrated in the structural design, power supply design, sampling channels, grounding design, decoupling, PCB design and other aspects. The anti-interference requirements for the software part mainly include trap technology, time redundancy technology, fault tolerance technology, and digital filtering technology.
Corresponding to the design aspect of wind power operation characteristics, one of the important difficulties in the manufacture of wind power converters is to design the control system according to the features of wind power operation. Therefore, manufacturing companies need to have a deeper understanding of the characteristics of wind power, including the adaptability to wind power operating environment, low voltage ride through, and high voltage ride through.
As for the complete set of safety and stability testing technologies, the quality control is very strict due to the fact that the fan operation is generally based on the criteria of not going offline for 20 years. Not only the downstream machine manufacturers need to conduct type tests on the converters to control the quality, but also generally need to have dozens of steps of quality control systems within the converter manufacturers, such as over-current protection, over-temperature protection, and overload testing.
It is optimistic about the dual-feedback technology that is bound to the manufacturers of converter manufacturers. The double-fed machine occupies 77% of the inventory, and its upstream converter manufacturers have a larger market space. From the perspective of inventory, the double-fed machine accounted for 77%, while the direct-drive machine accounted for only 23%. Therefore, we believe that there is more market space for DFIG converter manufacturers in upstream converters. Due to the mainstream of domestic direct drive manufacturers only gold wind technology and Hunan Electric shares, its optionality is also small. There are more than 60 double-fed machine manufacturers, and their selectivity to downstream manufacturers is even broader.
At present, domestic companies that have achieved technological breakthroughs and have the ability to provide centralized supply to large-scale integrated manufacturers can be classified into three categories: subsidiaries of complete manufacturers, such as Goldwind Technologies and Xiangdian Electric, all of which are established in its subsidiaries. Converter subsidiary company; power electronics company realizes supply for large-scale machine manufacturers after technological breakthroughs, such as Ke Lu Xin Neng, Rongxin shares, Jiuzhou Electric; early focus on manufacturers of renewable energy power generation products, such as Qingnenghua Fu, Hefei sunshine, hope of electrical and so on.
We believe that converter manufacturers that have long-term supply through close cooperation with complete machine manufacturers will have greater room for growth, and will also go faster in the process of import substitution, such as Ke Lu Xineng, and hopes for electric and so on.
New installed capacity boosts incremental market
Judging from the cumulative installed capacity, Huarui, Goldwind, and Dongqi together accounted for 57% of the cumulative installed capacity, of which double-fed generators Huarui and Dongqi accounted for 36%, direct-drive units accounted for 21% of the wind. Therefore, we believe that the converter companies that bind the three major manufacturers will play an integral role in the entire process of the transformation.
From the stock market, the installed capacity of the direct drive is 10.17 GW, and the double feed is 34.57 GW. Assuming 1.5MW per unit, there are 6,779 direct-drive units and 23044 double-fed units. The price of low-voltage ridethrough retrofit is generally quite different. For example, Jinfeng Science and Technology, due to the simple structure of the direct-drive unit, transforms about 10 million yuan; the Dongfang Steam Turbine has the lowest transformation cost, less than 10 million; and Sinovel wind turbines are more compact due to the unit design. The transformation of the converter chassis needs to be completely transformed at a price of more than 200,000 yuan. In the process of market size measurement, we assume that the average price is 100,000 yuan, and the total market scale of the stock market reform is about 3 billion yuan, of which double feed is 2.3 billion yuan and direct drive is about 700 million yuan.
From the perspective of new installed capacity, Huarui, Goldwind, and Dongqi together accounted for 56% of the cumulative installed capacity, of which the double-feeder units Huarui and Dongqi accounted for 36%, and the direct-drive unit's Goldwind accounted for 20%. Therefore, the converter companies that bind the three major manufacturers will have a stable industry position and a steady source of orders in the supporting market.
From the perspective of the newly added market, the average annual new installed capacity during the 12th Five-Year Plan is 9053MW, and during the 13th Five-Year Plan period it is 12,000MW. We assume that direct drive accounts for 23% of the total, double-feeding accounts for 77%, and 1.5MW/Taiwan blowers measure, then the average annual demand of direct-drive wind turbines during the "12th Five-Year Plan" is 1388, and during the "Thirteenth Five-Year" period, it is 1840. station. The average annual demand for double-fed fans during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period is 4647 units, and 6160 units during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. According to the direct-drive converter price of 700,000 yuan and the double-feed converter price of 400,000 yuan, the market size of the converter during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period will be 2.83 billion yuan, of which 970 million yuan will be directly driven and 1.86 billion will be double-fed. yuan. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, it was 3.75 billion yuan, of which direct investment was 1.29 billion yuan and double-batch was 2.46 billion yuan.
We believe that the demand for transforming the market will be concentrated in 2012-2013. Therefore, we will allocate the scale of the reform to 2012-2013, and the average market size for 2012-2013 will reach 4.32 billion yuan, benefiting from the policy of reform, and the change of wind power. The streamer market may focus on outbreaks.
Although China has become a major wind power country regardless of cumulative installed capacity or total output of wind turbines, due to the disorder of development, the next phase will focus on improving the grid connection ratio and improving wind power quality and stability. Wind power converters, as a key component of electrical energy conversion, have localized rates of less than 10%, and most of them still rely on foreign companies. Many net-off accidents, inspections by the Electricity Regulatory Commission, and future transformations will all become breakthrough opportunities for local wind power converter manufacturers. We believe that the wind power converter manufacturers that doubly-fed generators will be bound to downstream customers will enjoy a broad market prospect. It is expected that related equipment vendors, such as Kelu Electronics, Sunlight Power Supply, and Haide Control will benefit. Among them, Kelu Electronics has long-term strategic cooperation agreements with Dongfeng because of its leading technology and stable and reliable products. This is just a beginning for Kelu. With the continuous demonstration of the company's demonstration effects in the field of wind turbine transformation and direct drive wind power conversion. With the introduction of device products, the company is expected to gain more room for development in this area.
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