LCD TV panel shipments are expected to decline in the fourth quarter

DisplaySearch Shanghai Office, November 14, 2011—In the first few months, TFT-LCD panel makers have been controlling production to reduce inventory and reduce losses. However, according to the DisplaySearch MarketWise-LCD Industry Dynamics report, the October production rate rose from 68% in September to 75%.

The increase in production capacity in October mainly came from Korean panel makers, which increased the utilization rate to 84-85% to meet the demand for higher TV panels in October. In addition, both LG Display and Samsung have continued to increase shipments in the Chinese market, and shipments are expected to continue to grow in November and December.

Taiwan's panel makers have also increased their capacity utilization rate in October, but the average is about 65%, and the fourth quarter will remain at this level. As a result, reaction panel makers are still cautious about the outlook of the TV market. On the other hand, they also show the influence of market rankings. Japanese panel makers are still solving the problem of excessive inventory and will continue to reduce production capacity in the fourth quarter.

The utilization rate of each generation line is different. The historical minimum for the 7 and 7.5 generation lines in September was only 76%, and it increased to 86% in October; the 8th and 8.5th generation lines have increased their production rate from 64% in September. It was 72% in October.

Shipments of large-size panels such as LCD TV panels may reach their peak in October and decline by 2% in November. There may be another significant decline at the end of the year.

China’s October holiday boosted strong sales and panel shipments rose as expected. The home appliance subsidy policy will end at the end of November. Before that, it is estimated that there will be a wave of sales climax in the TV market. Inferred from this, compared to last year's holiday, the demand for replenishment will be higher this year.

According to Deborah Yang, research director of DisplaySearch, “The panel factory adjusts the capacity utilization rate based on the sales target, and the market outlook is expected to be higher than the actual market demand, which may lead to oversupply. The holiday market in October is basically saturated. Large-size panel shipments are expected to decline in December and next January."

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