According to foreign media reports, Andrew Entwistle, a partner at independent research firm New Street Research, pointed out that the Internet of Things will not become a revenue stream for telecom operators, and that 5G and the Internet of Things are not interdependent and inseparable. . His remarks are exactly the opposite of telecom operators and suppliers.
In addition, he also believes that 5g is not a substitute for 4g, 5g will be the end of the current mobile industry, and the licensing and management model of the spectrum will need to be completely changed. Entweisell said that although the Internet of Things will bring considerable revenue to suppliers, telecommunications companies cannot enjoy the same treatment.
“We are very willing to admit that equipment manufacturers and suppliers, system integrators, policy makers, and all those who care about the role of communication services in the Internet are very interested,†Entweisser said. One of the terrible views about the Internet has not been elucidated. To put it more seriously, the Internet of Things is simply worthless for telecom operators who want to achieve higher revenue per user or revenue per device by selling services. ""
Entweisell is exemplified by a 5g hospital with tens of thousands of connected devices. He explained that equipment suppliers will charge fees based on the number of devices, while telecom companies simply need to provide services, that is, to connect devices to the Internet.
"Telecom operators can't earn a penny from these devices themselves; they just connect 5gbps fiber to the hospital's data room. Maybe in the next 10 years, they can still sell 5gbps connection service, or not. Selling 10Gbps fiber service at half the price of 5gbps fiber today."
“Here, I don’t see the business opportunities of telecom operators.â€
He pointed out that telecom operators are unprepared for this reality, and many operators assume that their revenues will multiply as thousands of connected devices are added.
“One operator once said: 'Our equipment will increase 1000 times, but we only need the ARPU (average revenue per user) of the 1st, 000th users to build a scale comparable to our existing business. New business. 'In my opinion, this is not a business plan, just a bold assumption made by multiplying two numbers."
“I don’t agree with the IoT strategy developed on this basis. I’m not saying that no operators can do this. There are many operators who have good development opportunities in the local area, especially the emerging ones that have achieved important success in 3G and 4g. The market. And I don't believe that an operator who is struggling in a 4g IoT environment can work in a 5g environment."
In this regard, Entweisser also denied the link between the 5g and the Internet of Things that telecom operators and suppliers pushed. He said that 5g is too broadly inclusive.
“We believe that the link between 5g and the Internet of Things is often driven more by lobbying and positioning than by actual tactics; in the Internet of Things and the IoT domain, there are many things that have their own The driving force and direction of development. We don't know exactly why 5g will enter these areas in a particularly compelling way."
For example, he said that when people talk about automatic cars, they are often associated with 5g, but the two are not combined by any type of road map or special technical means.
"If you look at a lot of policy documents in this area, you will find that the articles are always saying that they are consistent and interdependent, and both are indispensable."
"But I totally disagree with this view. I can understand why it is more convenient to put them together, but I think that from the perspective of our view, this is essentially a misinterpretation."
Similarly, Entwist pointed out that 5g will not be a substitute for 4g, but will coexist with 4g for at least ten years.
He believes: "5g is not a real new technology, it is not a substitute for 4g."
“Everyone must take into account that most 5g spectrum bands can only provide outdoor to outdoor or indoor to indoor communication, and 4g is still the main way we provide outdoor to indoor services. For this reason, 5g should be 4g supplement Or fill the filler.
"In terms of further improvement, 4g's development prospects are very good, and the purpose of developing 5g is to work very closely with 4g, and I also include Wi-Fi in this combination. So in essence, we are adding 5g to this Instead of using it to replace 4g in a specific time, in the toolkit."
The high frequency band that will be used for 5g will bring challenges in technology, traffic processing and authorization, especially in terms of scope, building penetration, beamforming levels that can be used in real environments, network densification and frequency width and complex When using the same.
“These high frequency bands bring both huge opportunities and technical challenges. Opportunities refer to channel widths. In our current 4g world, there are 5MHz, 10MHz and 20MHz channels, but In the 5g world, we are talking about hundreds of megabytes, and even in some people's planning, it is a channel up to 2GHz."
"The amount of data obtained from such a wide channel is imaginable, and the challenge of dealing with this amount of data is obviously huge."
The frequency must be reused because the high frequency spectrum cannot cover a wide area or pass through a building, so beamforming is required.
Entwig also believes that Australia's network densification problem is "very serious": "It is necessary to deploy a dense 5G network and need to develop a roadmap for how to achieve this goal."
He pointed out that, as we know, in order to support the 5G network, regulators need to change the spectrum authorization, which will ring the death knell for the mobile phone industry.
“Today, in many mobile phone markets around the world, we are running around 700 MHz (for 4g); and in the next 5-10 years, we have to prepare tens of megahertz for 5g services. The authorization model is difficult to do this."
"We need to develop a new set of licensing models that include unauthorized use, but we believe that shared access will be at the heart of the new model, which is extremely disruptive to existing cellular models."
Telecom operators will no longer be able to use existing data-based revenue models because data usage will be determined by the devices around the customer and the data that needs to be connected to them will be greatly improved.
"In the 5g world, you don't know what content your phone is connected to. The connection decision for your phone in the current month will be made by the phone and the network, and the overcharging due to these decisions or because the carrier thinks the user should pay. More opportunities to chase more expensive data packages, this opportunity has really disappeared, and we can say that this opportunity began to decline in the 4g era, and the arrival of the 5g era really gave it the last one hit."
"With a surge in network speeds of 1 Gbps, you can advertise the entire package in just eight seconds. Perhaps this has drained your battery. So what we are saying here is that in the 5G era, we can't imagine the current The mobile phone business model can survive."
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